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Pete Carroll believes his Seattle Seahawks will make the playoffs. And when they do, the head coach says, they’ll be equipped to make a run because of all they will have endured to get there.

“I just believe we are of that caliber,” Carroll said Friday after Seattle’s 41-35 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. “We have to find our way through it and get there. I don’t know if there are enough games. Maybe there isn’t. Maybe we run out of games. I don’t know. We’re going to have to make some big noise here in the next couple of weeks, and we just have to keep on going.

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“We will be hardened, we will be competitively battlefield tested, as well as you could be prepared.”

On Friday, Pete Carroll was asked what makes him think the Seahawks will make the playoffs.

He began his response by saying, “I just believe we are of that caliber.”

Full answer from Pete 👇🏽 pic.twitter.com/MZX9gZaVz0

— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) December 4, 2023

The Seahawks have lost three straight games and four of their last five. From Week 9 to Week 13, Seattle was outscored by 56 points, the third-worst point differential in the league, ahead of only the Jets and Commanders, both at minus-77 in that span (all stats provided by TruMedia unless stated otherwise). The Panthers (minus-50) and the Patriots (minus-16) are winless in that span, yet have been more competitive than Seattle.

At 6-6, the Seahawks are ninth in the NFC and fighting for a wild-card spot along with three other .500 clubs: Minnesota, Green Bay and the Los Angeles Rams. Seattle has a 25.7 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to the projection model of The Athletic’s Austin Mock. Mock’s model has Seattle with worse playoff odds than the Packers (75.3 percent), Vikings (54.8) and Rams (31.1).

Carroll’s team is halfway through the toughest four-game stretch of its schedule, with two games coming up at the 49ers (9-3) and against the Eagles (10-2), which is why he’s of the impression that if they weather this storm, the playoffs won’t feel like anything they haven’t conquered before. There’s something to that, of course, but Seattle won’t make the playoffs unless it drastically improves these areas.

Third-down defense

The Seahawks’ defense ranks 29th in third-down conversion rate at 45.2 percent. Only the Bears (46.1), Cardinals (46.3) and Eagles (47.3) are worse. The league average is 39.1 percent, and Seattle has held its opponent below that number only four times this season (against the Giants, Bengals, Cardinals and Rams in Week 11). The Cowboys converted 8 of 14 third downs (57.1 percent) on Thursday night, and that was the fourth time Seattle has allowed a conversion rate above 50 percent.

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The pass rush and the coverage units have to work in tandem to get off the field. Seattle ranks 18th in third-down sack rate (9.4 percent) but 30th in pressure rate (36.6 percent). Without pressure on the quarterback, it’s hard for even the stickiest coverage to consistently hold up. Outside linebacker Boye Mafe is Seattle’s only player with a pressure rate that is above league average on third down. Defensive tackle Leonard Williams is right around league average, but the rest of the unit isn’t producing enough to help Seattle get off the field, and the other edge rushers have been virtually non-existent outside of the occasional Darrell Taylor sack.

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That has to change if Seattle is going to get back in the playoff picture.

Except for cornerback Riq Woolen, the coverage numbers for Seattle’s defensive backs aren’t as strong on third downs as they are on earlier downs, which is another reason the team is having problems getting off the field. That, too, must change in these last five regular-season games. Additionally, Seattle has to get out of its own way with penalties. The Seahawks have given opponents 10 first downs via penalty on third down, seventh-most in the league. All were committed by defensive backs.

The Seahawks have a few other concerns on defense, but fixing what’s ailing them on third down — tackling, penalties, pass rush, one-on-one coverage — would likely translate to the other downs as well, and lead to all their numbers improving.

Rushing efficiency  

Carroll attributed part of the Seahawks’ offensive success against the Cowboys to sticking with the run, in a way that allowed them to use more of their play-action concepts. But Zach Charbonnet and DeeJay Dallas combined for just 66 yards on 20 carries (3.3 yards per attempt) with only one first down outside of Charbonnet’s 1-yard touchdown run in the second quarter. A success rate of 25 percent isn’t going to cut it on a weekly basis. So even though Seattle was able to execute its play-action passes, it’s unlikely the team will continue to move the ball against quality opponents while being one-dimensional.

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“We need more yards,” Carroll said. “We need to average more than that.”

Seattle running backs are among the most efficient in the league by EPA per carry this season, but they are closer to the bottom of the league during this rough stretch, dating to the Ravens game in Week 9. That has been the case with or without Ken Walker III, whose status for the 49ers rematch remains uncertain due to the oblique strain he suffered in Week 11.

With right tackle Abe Lucas back and the way Seattle feels about its quarterback and his pass catchers, there’s no doubt the Seahawks will want to lean on the throwing game down the stretch. As they demonstrated Thursday against one of the best defenses in the league, they have the talent to be effective in that facet of the game.

But playoff teams have a counterpunch. For Seattle, that counter needs to be its running game. Good teams will exploit that until Seattle makes them pay.

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Red zone scoring 

Seattle scored touchdowns on four of five drives that reached the red zone against Dallas, matching its most efficient effort of the year (Week 2 in Detroit). However, the Seahawks rank 22nd on the season, one spot behind the Falcons. They are 12th in red zone drives, so converting is a bigger issue than getting to that part of the field.

The Eagles (29th) and the Cardinals (20th) aren’t very good at keeping opponents from scoring touchdowns in the red zone, but Seattle’s other matchups aren’t as favorable. The Titans have the second-best red zone defense in the league. The Steelers rank sixth, and the 49ers — whose defense has given Seattle trouble in all parts of the field — rank 13th.

Against Dallas, Seattle benefited from penalties that twice put the ball on the 1-yard line, so that performance might not prove to be predictive. But there were a few things that should carry over: the natural mismatch DK Metcalf creates in one-on-one coverage, and using Geno Smith’s legs. Metcalf got man coverage on both of his red zone touchdowns — which is something he’ll get going forward — and Smith delivered his first rushing touchdown of the year when he scrambled untouched up the middle for a 5-yard score. The threat of Smith’s legs could help Seattle’s shotgun running game on the goal line as well.

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Carroll might be correct that he has a playoff-caliber club. But the Seahawks are unlikely to play meaningful football in January unless they immediately improve their run game, third-down defense and red zone efficiency.

 (Photo: Tim Heitman / USA Today)

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